John Kerry is going to win the election in a few years from now. Here are the reasons that I think this way.
1. Most the polls are going to be way off, since they don't include people who registered to vote this year only to oust Bush.
2. Micheal Moore's film was the biggest film of the summer (and perhaps the year) and the young voters just love it. Everyone at work just is constantly quoting the film and use it as a bible for the potlicial views.
3. Most people who are under employed or out of work is going to blame Bush. In his defense Bush did come into the white house as the resecsion was starting. If you recall it was a big concern for him and Gore when they both ran in 2000. Of course 9/11 made things a lot worse. However, most people won't want to hear it they think Bush should have fixed the problem already.
4. The democrats are scaring the crap out of young people and college students going to college campuses and telling them they will all be drafted if they don't vote for John Kerry and fight in war on Iran that will start right after Bush gets elected.
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6 comments:
1. Great point about the polls, but I wouldn't have put it quite so strongly as that. That could happen, but it won't necessarily. We'll see.
2. What does "biggest film of the year" mean? Usually when people say that, they're talking about money, so F9/11 is far from the biggest of the summer or the year. I'm guessing that's not what you mean, because you know that. So what do you mean?
3. Bush should have fixed the problem already. There are fewer jobs now than there were when the recession ended, which was after 9/11. No excuse at all. Nobody was expecting record job growth, but the weakest recovery ever is really not good enough.
4. I've heard a few passing references to a draft, but as far as I can tell, that's an issue that bubbled up from the grassroots, and didn't really originate with the Democrats. People are worried about it, for sure, and Kerry has capitalized on that worry very nicely.
And I hope you're not criticizing the Dems for "scaring the crap out of young people", since it was Dick Cheney who said that the terrorists would hit us again if we didn't elect Bush.
Tom T said:
1. Polls, schmolls. Don't count your voters before they've voted. Polls are a tool to find out what is working campaign-wise. Though there are some who will vote for the front runner, and even those who will simply vote for the underdog, dispite any notion of what the candidate stands for.
2. Semantics? Why does it always boil down to semantics? http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=8542 This link states that Shrek 2, came out on top of the box office earners. F 9/11 *thx for the shorthand, Drew* wasn't even in the top 5. Sure it made money, but what did it make more of? Controversey and discussion. No other movie I can think of has people buzzing around talking politics than F 9/11. I would say it is the biggest movie in terms of political discussion leading up to this current presidential election. See put a fine enough point on it and make it your opinion and you close off lots of sematic debate and get back to debating issues. Now I put such a fine point on it no one can logically disagree becasue there wasn't any other movie that inspired politcal discussion leading up to this presidential election. And even if there was, it wasnt bigger than F 9/11. Downplaying it's impact on the topics of today because it didn't make a bazillion dollars is silly.
3. I'm employed now. I haven't focused on this issue.
4. Draft, scare tactics, meh. You'll never get me to fight in a war I don't want to. Canada, ho! I just might run for president afterwards. But as a nation of fear, (see "Bowling for Columbine") brewing fear in Americans is easy. But really, where is this draft gonna go first. My guess would be single male without technical skills. Students with Communications degrees, check. 18 and overs not working and not in college. Hmmm, there has been alot of swell to get black people to register to vote. P-diddy, MTV, etc, all might be helping in making a huge draft pool of poor, black youth. Geeze, and I'm not even a conspiracy theorist.
Oh and BTW, LOL, kieth, double post, stupid newb, ROFL!!!!11!!
Tom, if Keith had put it the way you did, I would have understood his point, and wouldn't have raised the issue. The downside of your very narrow definition, though, is that it doesn't carry any punch. "Biggest film of the year" has punch. "Most talked about political movie" is kinda weak, like saying "Team America World Police is the funniest marionette movie in theaters today". Big whoop.
Anyway, while it's not related to the election, I would say that Passion was bigger then Fahrenheit in terms of box office and impact. I'm basing this on anecdotal evidence from the video store. F9/11 is renting great, but not as well as the Passion was.
1. I was far as the polls go just look at Pens. which is a huge swing state. It was in the Daily News today that the majority of the new voters were from colleges or the major cities like Pittsburgh and Philly. So I highly doubt simply based on that, that PA will go to Bush.
2. I thought I had made this clear why F-9/11 is the in my view the biggest movie of the year. I am not talking about money, but talking about general impact on the film and society. More people saw Shrek2, but were less influenced in their life by it.
Look at the films coming out now. If you recall I said lots of Micheal Moore want to bes will be coming along. Now granted I imagine some of these films were made before the Micheal Moore's film hit the theaters, however I really doubt all these Bush bashing films would have leaped on to the big screen without the sucess of F-9/11.
Lets see this is based on reviews since I didnt see any of them but they are all anti-Bush films.
Bush's Brain, The Company (I hear is really good), The Truth About Iraq, and that one about Kerry (the title escapes me) that came out last weekend.
As for the quote by the VP, yeah I can see why people were upset about it. However, wasn't that just being blunt about what was being said already?
Kerry: Bush hasn't made you SAFER
meaning..what..safe from what? Safe from an attack? Meaning Kerry could make you MORE safe. Therefore voting for Bush would make you LESS safe and you are you can argue more likely to be attacked if you are LESS safe.
SO, both guys were saying all along I can make us SAFER. So, the VP said it the other way around and it came off as they are only going to attack you us if Kerry is sitting in the white house.
Just like both guys keep switching if we are going to win the war on terror or not.
The thing about PA is that Philly and Pittsburgh are cities which tend to vote liberal. The rest of the state is a lot of (this may sound wrong but oh-well) hicktowns where more people tend to vote conservative. They pretty much even each other out. I had a Political Policy class that referred to it as the PA "T" because that is where the conservative voters lived. The stretch along the top of the state and right down the middle. Once you get closer to the cities it is less and less conservative. Even though the cities are smaller in area they are so densly populated that it almost equals the amount of people throughout the rest of the state.
That is my little 2 cents for the day-my Political Policy teacher was a state rep. in PA.
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